Bitcoin has a 50% chance of exceeding $140,000 in October, according to economist Timothy Peterson. He stated:

“There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k, but there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k.”

Currently, Bitcoin trades at approximately $122,032 after reaching a record high of $126,200 on Monday, as reported by CoinMarketCap.

Peterson further explained that the simulation utilized Bitcoin’s daily price data since 2015 to predict market behavior over time. He indicated:

“Every projection follows the same logic, price changes that match Bitcoin’s real historical, repetitive volatility and rhythm.”

The price on October 1 started around $116,500, meaning achieving $140,000 would reflect a 20.17% increase for the month, aligning closely with Bitcoin’s typical October gain of 20.75% since 2013. According to CoinGlass, October stands as Bitcoin’s second-best month historically.

Bitcoin Performance Since 2013, November has been Bitcoin’s best-performing month, averaging gains of 46.02%. Source: CoinGlass

Peterson’s forecast is deemed free from the ‘bias and noise’ often influencing short-term market sentiment. He stated:

“The result is a clear, probability-based picture of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely to go.”

Conversely, discrepancies have occurred in the past between Bitcoin’s price movements and market predictions.

Significantly, other analysts foresee a price rally, with crypto analyst Jelle asserting:

“It’s definitely over for bears. Send it higher.”

Additionally, Matthew Hyland noted:

“The pressure is building.”

Peterson also highlighted the cyclical nature of the markets influenced by liquidity, sentiment, and positioning, especially as October signals the arrival of institutional capital cycles.