The Shift in Bitcoin’s Market Cycle
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, asserts that the four-year crypto cycle is no longer functional, contrary to popular belief. In a recent statement, he emphasized that Bitcoin’s price movements are influenced more by monetary policies than by historical timing patterns.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” said Hayes in a blog post on Thursday. Translation: Hayes remarks that traders are keen on referencing the historical cycles to predict market conditions, but he believes those patterns might not hold true in the current situation.
Why This Cycle is Unique
Hayes points out various reasons why the current cycle diverges from past ones. These include significant financial shifts such as the U.S. Treasury’s $2.5 trillion infusion into the market and President Donald Trump’s inclination toward a more lenient monetary policy.
Additionally, while some believe China will not significantly influence this cycle as in previous years, Hayes suggests that the shift towards less deflationary policy could keep momentum in the market.
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!” Translation: Hayes encourages attention to the monetary policies emanating from both the U.S. and Chinese governments, suggesting that increased liquidity will support Bitcoin’s ascent.
The Four-Year Cycle Still Has Followers
Despite Hayes’s insights, there are still voices advocating for the relevance of the four-year model. Analysts from Glassnode recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s price movements still display cyclical tendencies. Similarly, Saad Ahmed from the crypto exchange Gemini noted that there remains a distinct possibility of cyclical behaviors within Bitcoin markets even going forward.
