Key Points:
- Bitcoin is set for a breakout after a period of record Bollinger Bands tightness, but the direction remains uncertain.
- Historically, similar scenarios resolve within about three months.
- The present BTC price suggests the possibility of entering a new price discovery uptrend.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces a crucial time frame of the next 100 days, where it may either surge parabolically or conclude its current bull market, according to a recent analysis of BTC price volatility.
In a recent post on platform X, trader Tony “The Bull” Severino emphasized that Bitcoin’s next movement is tied to the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator.
BTC Price Breakout Challenges
The Bollinger Bands, a classic volatility indicator and leading price gauge, has recently exhibited record tightness in weekly timeframes. This has led analysts to monitor potential follow-through breakouts, either above or below the outer bands. Severino cautioned that a breakout may not be immediate and could take longer than three months.
“According to past local consolidation ranges, it could take as long as 100+ days to get a valid breakout (or breakdown, if BTC dumps instead).”
Severino’s perspective is based on prior Bollinger Band breakouts occurring during the ongoing bull market that began in early 2023.
Anticipating a New Price Discovery Uptrend?
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, past bull markets have aroused expectations for BTC/USD hitting a blow-off top in October. However, the current price action does not exhibit the rapid upward movement normally seen at the final stages of bull runs.
Analyst Rekt Capital, who had previously noted the timing for the market peak, mentioned that BTC price cycles appear to be lengthening.
“It’s unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked in its Bull Market because that would effectively mean that this cycle was one of the shortest of all time.”
This week, Rekt Capital highlighted the possible onset of a new price discovery uptrend, reiterating the significance of the Bollinger Bands breakout in determining whether Bitcoin will enter a parabolic phase or terminate its prolonged bull rally.
“This has the potential to send Bitcoin parabolic, or put an end to the three year’s mature bull rally.”
