Bitcoin's Surge Post-Halving: Potential for More Growth Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) recently peaked at $126,100 but faced profit-taking, leading to a decline of 4% by Friday. Following some market fears linked to Trump, Bitcoin dipped to $101,000 before recovering to $112,000 as of the latest available data.

Despite these fluctuations, analysts believe that a legitimate bull market phase may still await.

Bitcoin’s “Warm Zone” Momentum

Market data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin has transitioned into a pivotal stage following its halving, displaying signs of sustained strength rather than speculation. With over 530 days since the halving on April 20, 2024, Bitcoin’s current trading value is approximately $112,000, reflecting an 85% rise from its halving price of about $63,800.

The data indicates that the market is 35% into its usual four-year cycle, a time generally marked by steady upward movement.

CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin is still far from overheating, with the Z-Score at 1.47, indicating a neutral momentum and well below the 2.5 level that typically signals speculative bubbles and price corrections.

Additionally, the 30-day moving average stands at about $115,913, showing a stable climb rather than a sharp spike. Volatility metrics support this view, with Bitcoin’s 30-day standard deviation at around $4,540, reflecting low volatility and the potential for price stabilization leading to significant directional movements supported by new liquidity inflows.

Historical Trends

Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to peak between 500 and 600 days after halving events, as seen during cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021. As the current cycle nears this timeframe, traders are monitoring for signs of momentum or divergence from past patterns.

As long-term holders and institutions continue to build their positions, the market balances between optimism and caution. The upcoming months will reveal if Bitcoin will follow its traditional boom-and-peak model or transition into a steadier growth phase without the same level of volatility.

Current Market Sentiment

Bitcoin Vector’s analysis also mirrors this cautious sentiment. While long-term holders transferring coins to exchanges implies some level of selling, this activity appears moderate and is not excessive. The current market atmosphere shows no signs of over-exuberance.

If this trend of coin transfers slows while on-chain fundamentals remain solid, it could affirm confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, potentially boosting momentum into the fourth quarter.