Bitcoin's Struggles Near $115K as Analysts Caution on Recovery
Crypto Bits/Markets

Bitcoin's Struggles Near $115K as Analysts Caution on Recovery

Bitcoin faces resistance around $117.5K–$120K with vital support at $110.9K, raising concerns about recovery strength.

Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to stabilize after last week’s drastic drop that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions. Analysts have expressed concerns about buyer fatigue potentially restricting the recovery. Currently, Bitcoin trades at approximately $115,200, with challenges in overcoming resistance between $117,500 and $120,000 while maintaining necessary support at $110,900.

Market Rebounds but Momentum Weakens

The recovery follows what Valuermarket classified as “the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history,” with Bitcoin plummeting sharply from over $122,000 to around $101,000, triggering liquidations impacting over 1.6 million traders. This event was related to comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened new tariffs against China, causing brief market shockwaves.

However, by Sunday afternoon, the narrative shifted as tensions appeared to ease between Washington and Beijing, especially after confirmation that China’s new export measures were not full bans. This development led to Bitcoin rising from around $112,000 to above $114,500, concurrently with Ethereum (ETH) incurring a 6% increase to nearly $4,100.

Despite this rebound, market observers like Maartunn advised caution, noting signs that the recovery may be faltering. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s market structure looks weak, featuring a failed weekly breakout—a pattern reminiscent of events in November 2021, typically signaling buyer fatigue.

Furthermore, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator suggests distinct barriers, with a heavy supply area between $117,500 and $120,000 acting as significant resistance. Conversely, there is layered support at $95,000-$97,500, $106,000, and a critical level at $111,200.

The $110,900 threshold, marking the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, has been tested thrice in the last six weeks. While it has remained intact, Maartunn cautions that conviction is weakening and that a break below this point could lead to additional downward pressure, compounded by early profit-taking signs from recent buyers.

Technical Levels Define Next Move

Other technical analysts convey a more measured optimism. Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin managed a daily close above $114,300, maintaining its position above the 21-week Exponential Moving Average, which is historically a positive indication. He also highlighted that the asset filled a key CME futures gap between $109,700 and $111,310 over the weekend, although a new gap has opened between $115,690 and $116,865, presenting another area of interest for price dynamics.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $115,195, reflecting a 3% gain over the last 24 hours. Nonetheless, it remains 8.6% below its all-time high of over $126,000 achieved on October 6. Additionally, in the past week, it has faced a nearly 7% decline, indicating ongoing volatility stemming from the liquidation episode, even as daily trading volume exceeds $91 billion.

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