Bitcoin is trading just below a long-term resistance level that has marked key turning points in past market cycles. The asset stood at around $112,100 at press time, down slightly over the past 24 hours and down 8% over the past week.

Though short-term performance is weak, some technical and on-chain indicators are pointing to possible strength building in the background.

Log Curve and RSI Near Crucial Levels

Bitcoin’s price is approaching the top of its long-term logarithmic curve, a level that has acted as a ceiling in previous cycles. According to EtherNasyonaL, BTC “hasn’t even broken above the logarithmic curve resistance yet,” and historically, the market often gains momentum once this resistance is crossed.

Bitcoin Top Not Is In. 🔃 $BTC hasn’t even broken above the logarithmic curve resistance yet, so there’s no doubt the parabolic run will continue.

— EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL 💹🧲 @EtherNasyonaL October 14, 2025

Meanwhile, the monthly RSI is also near 72 but remains under its long-term trendline. Back in 2017, the RSI broke this same trendline shortly before a sharp price increase. The current setup shows the price and RSI are near similar conditions, although no breakout has been confirmed yet.

Additionally, on the 4-hour chart, Trader Tardigrade noted that Bitcoin is forming a double bottom pattern, where the second low is higher than the first, often indicating that sellers are losing strength and buyers may be returning.

Pricing Bands Mark $119K as Key Level

The MVRV pricing model from Glassnode indicates Bitcoin’s current price is just below the +0.5 standard deviation band, around $119,000. Analyst Ali suggested,

Bitcoin $BTC must reclaim $119,000 to keep bullish momentum alive! Otherwise, the Pricing Bands signal a correction towards $96,530.

— Ali @ali_charts October 15, 2025

If not, a drop towards the model’s mean at $96,526 could occur. These pricing bands help map past market highs and lows; Bitcoin currently sits in the middle range, lacking a clear direction until it either surpasses or falls beneath one of these thresholds.

On-Chain Data Indicates Market Behavior Shift

Data from XWIN Research Japan suggests Bitcoin is transitioning into a later cycle stage. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) sits at +0.52, historically marking a shift from growing optimism to speculative trading patterns. Currently, around 97% of Bitcoin’s supply is profitable.

Short-term holders account for 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, representing the highest recorded level. This suggests many long-term holders are selling during strength while recent buyers are stepping in. XWIN emphasized “This time the structure appears different,” likely due to ETF inflows and increased market liquidity.

As long as the price remains below resistance, any potential breakout remains unconfirmed. A move above $119,000, alongside a RSI break, could signal a continuation of the current trend.