Key Insights:

• Retail traders maintain 94% long positions on Ether, a common contrarian signal.
• ETH funding on Binance remains stable, indicating moderate leverage without excessive enthusiasm.
• BitMine has accumulated over 300,000 ETH this week.

Ether (ETH) continues to struggle under the key threshold of $4,000, showing difficulty in establishing a bullish momentum following a recent price drop. The altcoin remains stuck between its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which highlights the ongoing battle between short-term and long-term market trends.

ETH one-day chart ETH one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Retail ETH Long Positions Are at Risk of a Downturn

Despite a mixed technical outlook, retail investors are aggressively positioning for further gains, with data from Hyblock Capital suggesting that the percentage of Ether’s True Retail Accounts (TRAs) in long positions has reached 90%, among the highest levels across major cryptocurrencies. Hyblock stated,

“True Retail Accounts Long% is getting high among quite a few coins, noting percentile readings of 94% for Bitcoin, 90% for Ether, and 86% for Solana.”

The firm noted an inverse correlation between retail long positions and prices for ETH. The high long percentage could indicate that a reversal may be imminent as long positions become overwhelmingly crowded.

True retail long % on Binance True retail long % on Binance for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE. Source: Hyblock Capital/X

Currently, the funding rates on Binance hover between 0.01% and 0.03%, indicating a healthy yet cautious market. Historically, these levels suggest that the market is in a mid-phase uptrend and far from overheated conditions seen during previous bull runs. Analysts suggest that while the market currently favors long positions, a sudden increase in funding rates above 0.05% could signal overcrowding and lead to short-term profit-taking.

Ether funding rate on Binance Ether funding rate on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Large Holders are Buying Ether on the Dip

Prominent ETH holders are leveraging the recent price drop to acquire more funds. Reports indicate that BitMine Immersion Technologies, led by Tom Lee, purchased a total of 104,336 ETH for approximately $417 million. This acquisition added to BitMine’s holding of over 202,000 ETH acquired earlier, bringing its total reserve value to $9.3 billion. Tom Lee has reiterated his target of $10,000 per ETH by year-end, supported by escalating institutional demand.

Bitmine ETH reserve Bitmine ETH reserve. Source: Strategicethreserve.xyz