Bitcoin (BTC) faced renewed selling pressure recently as it fell below the $105,000 threshold. This latest market dip has prompted comparisons to earlier cycles. However, on-chain data indicates that the 2025 Bitcoin market seems structurally more robust compared to 2020 or 2021.

Same Shock, New Bitcoin

Unlike previous corrections, when trading reserves surged due to investor sell-offs, CryptoQuant noted that current balances remain at decade lows. This suggests a more limited supply on trading platforms, reducing the likelihood of extensive sell-offs and promoting faster stabilization.

Long-term holders appear largely unaffected by recent volatility. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) has maintained a close-to-neutral stance, contrasting sharply with the sub-1 readings seen during past capitulations, which indicated mass losses and panic selling.

Instead of liquidating their assets, these holders are opting to strategically realize profits. Historical data showcases Bitcoin’s recovery patterns. For instance, the March 2020 decrease cleared out excess leverage before significant purchases by whales resumed. A similar trend was observed in May 2021, where large wallets toggled between selling high and buying low. After the August 2023 US debt downgrade, another rapid rebound occurred as investors returned to the market.

Each cycle, thus far, has highlighted the market’s increasing capacity to withstand shocks and recover effectively. Current conditions “do not suggest fundamental weakness.” Unless a rise in exchange inflows prompts widespread selling, the current decline appears more like a consolidation rather than capitulation.

BTC Continues to Leave Exchanges

Swissblock has also observed that the recent downturn reflects consolidation and not capitulation. The analytics platform reported that after a period of significant exchange outflows driven by long-term holders’ accumulation, some selling has resumed, but at a much lower intensity. Despite this decrease, Bitcoin continues to exit exchanges, albeit at a slower pace, indicating that investors are predominantly confident and not in a rush to offload their holdings.

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“The true impact of the weekend’s deleverage will surface as participants reposition. So far, on-chain behavior supports short-term bullish structural consolidation, not panic or forced selling.”