Key Points:
- The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium has shifted to negative territory as BTC fell below $104,000.
- The RSI for Bitcoin has touched its lowest since April, indicating that it may be nearing a bottom phase.
- Maintaining support at the 200-day EMA is crucial as BTC faces potential short-term selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) faced a decline on Friday, trading at $103,500 and affecting market sentiment significantly. The Coinbase Premium Index, which gauges the price discrepancy of BTC between Coinbase and other exchanges, shifted to negative for the first time in weeks.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. Source: X
Earlier this week, BTC tried to bounce back around $110,000, buoyed by steady demand from U.S. investors, even seeing the Coinbase premium rise to 0.18, its peak since March 2024. However, confidence faded as BTC couldn’t maintain its position above $110,000 on Thursday. While the hourly premium has gone negative, the daily reading still shows modest positivity, indicating that U.S. buying support is not entirely absent but is under pressure.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s taker sell volume skyrocketed past $4 billion, reflecting a surge in market selling orders, coinciding with BTC’s price failing to break above the key resistance level of $112,370.
Historically, this price has acted as the average cost for newer investors, so falling below could lead to a significant sell-off towards the $100,000 level.
Bitcoin realized price for short-term holders. Source: X
Bitcoin’s Current Price Behavior Mimics Earlier Bottoms
BTC’s recent trading actions bear a resemblence to past patterns seen in March and April, suggesting it might retest the $100,000 mark without a breach in its general upward trend unless it decisively drops under this threshold.
Bitcoin one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The RSI has declined to a noteworthy low, reflecting April’s levels of 34, after which BTC began to recover. Observing the 200-day EMA, a significant technical indicator, is essential as BTC has maintained this level for almost six months.
If BTC continues to imitate its past movements, a potential consolidation phase could extend for several weeks. Recovery attempts in Q1 have previously lasted between 45 to 55 days, indicating a gradual recovery may not be realized until late November or December.
Crypto trader Dentoshi stated:
"$BTC has consistently bottomed around the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run—but it’s taken 45–96 days to do so."
Bitcoin three-day chart analysis. Source: Dentoshi/X
Related: Bitcoin holds $105K as US bank stocks recover, Trump truce lifts sentiment
This information does not serve as financial advice. Each investment carries risks, and it is important for readers to conduct individual research when making decisions.
