Bitcoin is currently experiencing a downturn this week, with a considerable fall from its all-time high. The cryptocurrency recently tested crucial trendlines and support levels. Although the overarching macro trend continues to indicate bullishness, the immediate outlook suggests potential consolidation or even further declines if buying interest does not re-emerge soon.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

BTC has dipped beneath the 100-day moving average at approximately $115K, currently resting on the lower trendline of a prominent ascending channel along with the key 200-day moving average. This zone coincides with a prior order block, serving as a significant support point.

Nonetheless, the RSI is lingering under 40, signifying a stark loss of bullish momentum. If the price does not rebound promptly, this critical trendline may be breached, paving the way for movements below the essential $100K level, consequently raising the specter of a bearish market shift.

BTC Daily Chart

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming in, there’s a noticeable minor support base around $105K following the breakdown of $115K and $109K resistance levels. The asset is contending to reclaim the $108K-$109K zone, which has morphed into a key resistance area. The RSI is showing a slight upward movement but remains weak, hovering around 38.

The overall trend appears bearish in the short run unless a solid recovery above $110K occurs accompanied by higher lows. Otherwise, sellers may drive BTC into the $100K territory or lower.

BTC 4-Hour Chart

Sentiment Analysis

Futures Average Order Size

Recent data regarding futures order sizes shows a significant shift from whale activity to smaller, retail-driven trades in recent weeks. As the price began to correct in September, the volume of large whale orders noticeably declined, replaced by smaller retail transactions.

This indicates that institutional investors might be stepping back from leveraged positions, leaving retail traders actively involved. Such behavior is characteristic during phases of trend exhaustion, typically seen towards the end of a bullish market, marking a potentially worrying development.

This dynamic reinforces concerns that the recent price dip is not backed by strong accumulation, increasing the risk of additional declines unless new institutional interest emerges.

Futures Order Size

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Disclaimer: Information provided here is strictly for informational purposes. For investment decisions, thorough research is recommended.