A quantum computer capable of defeating today’s encryption methods could compromise Bitcoin, taking coins seamlessly while the network continues operating.
“Everything would look like legitimate access,” David Carvalho, CEO of post-quantum infrastructure company Naoris Protocol, told Cointelegraph. “When you think you’re seeing a quantum computer out there, it’s already been in control for months.”
“You wouldn’t even know,” he said.
Researchers from IBM, Google, and other governmental laboratories are swiftly working to resolve this vulnerability, but time is of the essence. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has begun to endorse post-quantum algorithms, while numerous public blockchains still depend on encryption techniques from the 1980s.
At present, it remains a theoretical risk. Yet, if this theory were to become reality, Bitcoin’s defenses could collapse before the network could respond, Carvalho cautioned.
Analyzing How a Quantum Attack Could Dismantle Bitcoin
The security of Bitcoin hinges on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), introduced in 1985. This system allows users to verify ownership using a private key, with only the associated public key revealed to the network.
With Shor’s algorithm, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could hypothetically retrieve a private key from a public one. This could give assailants access to any wallet linked with an exposed public key on-chain, including early Bitcoin transactions.
“It would be impossible to prove a quantum computer did it because it derives legitimate access,” Carvalho stated. “You’d just see those coins move as if their owners decided to spend them.”
Kapil Dhiman, CEO and founder of Quranium, highlighted that the most vulnerable assets would be the oldest wallets.
“Satoshi’s coins would be sitting ducks,” he advised Cointelegraph. “If those coins move, confidence in Bitcoin will shatter long before the system itself fails.”
In such an event, while the blockchain would keep processing transactions normally, earlier ownership would stealthily switch.
Traditionally, Bitcoin has not kept pace with traditional finance (TradFi) in adopting post-quantum encryption. Many banks and government entities are already trialing quantum-resistant security. Carvalho mentioned,
“Traditional finance is actually ahead. They have central control, budgets, and a single authority that can push upgrades. Crypto doesn’t have that. Everything takes a consensus.”
If Bitcoin fails this quantum challenge, it could result in an abrupt decline in confidence, triggering plummeting prices and affecting traditional markets, where institutional interest in cryptocurrencies has been growing. Carvalho noted,
“However, it would not be the first time world-class cryptography had been broken without public knowledge.”
Continuing to meet quantum threats is an ongoing challenge, as the contentions surrounding these impending risks remain largely theoretical. For now, Bitcoin’s encryption system is holding firm, with quantum computers capable of breaching it only theoretical constructs.
