Key takeaways:

• The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium has dropped as the BTC price fell below $104,000.
• The RSI for Bitcoin has reached its lowest point since April, indicating a potential bottom area.
• The 200-day EMA support remains essential, as BTC could face short-term losses.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its downward trend on Friday, decreasing to $103,500 and prompting a significant change in on-chain market sentiment. For the first time in weeks, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, turned negative.

Earlier this week, BTC sought to maintain support around $110,000 due to steady demand from US investors. The Coinbase premium even surged to 0.18, marking its highest level since March 2024.

However, after failing to sustain above $110,000 on Thursday, confidence dipped. While the hourly premium is now negative, the daily rate remains slightly positive, showing that long-term US buying hasn’t completely vanished but is under pressure.

Adding to the selling pressure, Bitcoin’s taker sell volume exceeded $4 billion, indicating a surge in market orders to sell. This trend appeared alongside a rejection for BTC near the short-term holder’s realized price of $112,370, which now stands as resistance.

Historically, this price point has represented the average cost for recent buyers, suggesting that sustained rejections below it might hasten short-term capitulation towards the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin Mimics March–April Recovery Patterns BTC’s current trading patterns resemble those of March and April. The sudden intra-day price fluctuations eliminated liquidity built over the prior month, followed by a gradual recovery. This behavior implies BTC could revisit the $100,000 benchmark without fully breaking the overall bullish trend unless it substantially drops below that threshold.

The RSI also decreased to its lowest level, equating to April’s low of 34, after which BTC began to recover.

A crucial technical indicator to monitor is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which BTC has maintained for around six months. In the previous cycle, this trend held from October 2024 to March 2024 before an interruption during consolidation. Currently, this trendline has persisted from April through October 2025, though a deviation from it may occur soon.

If BTC adheres to its past patterns, the market might enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks. In Q1, the recovery phase extended roughly 45–55 days, concluding with a definitive bottom in late April. Following the same timeline could mean a gradual recovery might not take shape until late November or early December.

Crypto trader Dentoshi also shared this perspective, stating:

“$BTC has consistently bottomed around the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run—but it’s taken 45–96 days to do so.”

This article does not serve as investment advice or recommendations. Each financial move carries risks, and readers are advised to conduct their own research before proceeding.