Bitcoin treasury firms have experienced a significant collapse in their Net Asset Values (NAVs), impacting retail investors who have lost substantial sums. This situation, however, is viewed as a potential opportunity for astute asset managers, according to insights from 10x Research.

“The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies,” claimed analysts from 10x Research in a report shared with Cointelegraph.
“They conjured billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their actual Bitcoin value — until the illusion vanished.”

In this illusion, retail investors suffered losses while some executives accumulated real Bitcoin (BTC) by capitalizing on inflated shares.

The researchers highlighted Metaplanet, one of the leading Bitcoin treasury firms, which managed to alter its market capitalization from $8 billion, buoyed by just $1 billion in Bitcoin, to a more equitable structure with a $3.1 billion market cap underpinned by $3.3 billion in BTC holdings.

Similar Situations in Strategy

Retail buyers have historically overpaid for shares during market highs, acquiring them at values two to seven times greater than actual Bitcoin worth. With those price premiums now gone, many investors find themselves in unfavorable positions.

Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, has also experienced a decline in its NAV, leading to a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases. Analysts note:

“With NAVs now having fully round-tripped, retail investors have lost billions—and many likely lack the conviction to keep adding to their positions.”

Rise of Bitcoin Asset Management

The current normalization of NAVs is fostering a unique entry point for savvy investors. Companies trading at or below NAV are seen as offering direct Bitcoin exposure along with potential future profits.

This shakeup distinguishes capable operators from mere marketers, as surviving firms will be better positioned to generate ongoing returns and establish a new class of Bitcoin asset managers.

According to 10x Research, the future of the market could be defined by:

“Bitcoin itself will continue to evolve, and Digital Asset Treasury firms with strong capital bases and trading-savvy management teams may still generate meaningful alpha.”

Market Movements

On a related note, Strategy stock (MSTR) rose by 2% recently, closing at $289.87, although it has dropped 39% since hitting its peak in November 2024. Meanwhile, Metaplanet shares (MTPLF) fell by 6.5% in recent trading, reflecting ongoing volatility in the market.

Source: 10x Research