The creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, PlanB, has recently expressed skepticism about the interpretation of Bitcoin’s four-year market cycles. He stated that the belief in a strict adherence to these cycles is fundamentally flawed.

“IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding.”
(Translation: In my opinion, that is a major misunderstanding.)

PlanB highlighted that while four-year cycles have previously coincided with Bitcoin halvings, the existence of only three cycles is insufficient for establishing a definitive pattern. He cautioned against assuming that previous peaks will reoccur 18 months post-halving, especially with the next halving approaching this October.

Different Cycle Dynamics

The analyst speculated that the cycle might not peak until 2026, 2027, or even 2028. He placed a greater emphasis on average price levels rather than predicting precise peaks or troughs.

“What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle.”
(Translation: What I know is that a fundamental transition in Bitcoin’s phase has not yet occurred in this cycle.)

He added that there are two scenarios: either a significant price increase is on the horizon, or the market has transitioned into a more stable phase dominated by institutional investors. Both situations could yield positive outcomes for Bitcoin.

In the realm of market sentiment, analysts, including Willy Woo, noted that the liquidity influencing the last bull market’s peak originated from short-term instruments. He pointed out that this cycle appears different due to the decreasing impact of ‘paper’ liquidity as the market shifts towards stable long-term investments.

As Bitcoin battled through volatility, dipping below $104,000, many feared the onset of a bear market. Analysts have noted a change in public sentiment regarding price movements.

Bitcoin’s Recent Decline

As of the latest update, Bitcoin’s price fell over 3%, retracing to $107,700 amid Asian trading sessions. The cryptocurrency appeared to stabilize around the critical threshold of $108,000. Nonetheless, the overall crypto market remains unstable, necessitating stronger economic fundamentals to foster growth.