Astrologically speaking, it seems that the planets would need to align perfectly for Bitcoin to achieve a value of $250,000 by the end of the year, as noted by Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital.

While several leaders in the crypto industry insist that Bitcoin could still reach this lofty goal by year-end, Novogratz remains unconvinced. “The year is nearly at an end, just two and a half months left,” he commented during a CNBC interview. He added:

“There would have to be a heck of a lot of crazy stuff to really get that kind of momentum.”

At the moment, Bitcoin is priced around $107,649, according to CoinMarketCap, which would necessitate a staggering 133% increase in just ten weeks for the predictions to become reality.

Holding Above $100,000

In his analysis, Novogratz indicated that even in the least favorable outcomes, Bitcoin should maintain a value near $100,000, a critical benchmark it crossed in December 2024, shortly after Donald Trump won the presidential election once again.

He expressed that the $100,000 mark or something close to it should represent the minimum value supported by the market.

Bitcoin is down 3.44% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin approached that threshold recently when the market reacted to Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China, which led a sudden plunge to $102,000 on October 10.

“For any upward movement, we need to overcome the $125,000 barrier,” he stated, referencing Bitcoin’s recent peak of $125,100 on October 5. He elaborated:

“So the most likely outlook is we’re rangy between 100 and 120 or 125, unless we take out the top side.”

Potential Catalysts for Growth

Novogratz pointed out that potential catalysts for breaking past that all-time high include if Trump were to influence the Federal Reserve too soon, or if a proposed regulatory bill known as the CLARITY Act gains approval this year.

The crypto community is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, which are seen as a bullish factor for Bitcoin after it lowered rates for the first time this year in September.

At the upcoming Fed meeting on October 29, there are approximately 96.7% chances of another rate cut, according to CME’s Fed Watch Tool.

Diverging Perspectives on Bitcoin Price

Despite Novogratz’s cautionary stance, other crypto leaders hold on to optimistic projections of Bitcoin reaching $250,000. Speaking on a recent episode of the Bankless podcast, BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expressed their confidence that Bitcoin could end the year between $200,000 and $250,000, a belief they have maintained throughout the year.

However, some analysts downplay the significance of Bitcoin’s price by year-end. Bitcoin analyst PlanC stated on September 5:

“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability.”

Additionally, Adam Back opined that while Bitcoin’s price cycles may be dramatically larger than before, it will ultimately breach the $100,000 mark decisively.