Bitcoin is currently hovering around $109,000, experiencing minimal fluctuations over the past day. While the weekly trend displays a more pronounced decline, recent insights indicate that pressure on BTC may persist.

Focus on Realized Price Levels

Bitcoin has dipped below the short-term holder (STH) realized price of $113,250, with the long-term holder (LTH) realized price considerably lower at around $36,910. Historically, when Bitcoin falls below the STH price level, it often heads toward the LTH price. Such a trend has been observed in previous downturns.

Ali Martinez remarked,

“Historically, when Bitcoin $BTC breaks below the STH Realized Price, it tends to fall under the LTH Realized Price too, now sitting at $37,000.”
Translation: Historically, when Bitcoin breaks below the STH price level, it typically falls to beneath the LTH price, currently positioned at $37,000.

Though Bitcoin remains well above the $37,000 mark, traders are monitoring this level as a potential target should selling intensify. Presently, the LTH zone appears secure, yet the landscape mirrors past downturns.

Escalation of Retail Selling on Binance

According to CryptoQuant, retail trader selling activity has surged. On October 22, approximately 13,000 BTC were sold on Binance, totaling around $1.4 billion. This signifies the second significant wave of sales within a week, following a similar event on October 17.

Amr Taha noted,

“This marks the second major selling wave in a week.”
Translation: This indicates the second large wave of selling in a week.

The STH realized cap, which reflects the value held by short-term holders, saw a sharp decline from $15.2 billion to $2.2 billion over eight days. This change suggests that many traders exited their positions, either locking in losses or reallocating their assets. Concurrently, long-term holders seem to be increasing their investment, a typical pattern during retail-driven declines.

Resilience of Key Demand Zone

Bitcoin continues to trade above a significant support range between $108,000 and $110,000. This zone has historically acted as a foundation during previous market slowdowns. The 21-week EMA is also aligned within this range, possibly contributing to the current support.

On the daily chart, there are preliminary signs of establishing a higher low, indicated by an upward line from recent candlesticks. Rekt Capital suggested this is merely a very early development, emphasizing that a solid move back above $114,000 is essential for changing the momentum. At present, Bitcoin seems to be in a range-bound trajectory.

Anticipation Surrounding CPI and Economic Indicators

Future short-term movements are likely to be influenced by upcoming data releases. Ted mentioned,

“If CPI comes higher than expected, expect more pain ahead.”
Translation: If the Consumer Price Index exceeds expectations, anticipate further challenges.

A softer inflation report could bolster risk markets. Elsewhere, technical analysts noted a bullish divergence and a golden cross forming on the 12-hour chart. Bitcoin still holds the lower end of its recent price range after being rejected near $114,500.

In addition, notable Bitcoin holders are shifting assets into spot ETFs, seeking enhanced access to traditional finance without triggering taxable events. Analysts at VanEck referred to this activity as part of a liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset in a recent note.