Bitcoin Faces One of Its Worst Octobers in History
Despite a return to its local trading range, Bitcoin shows signs of an underwhelming October, raising concerns among investors.
Bitcoin continues to struggle, with many expressing disappointment as it threatens to record the first ‘red’ October since 2018. The cryptocurrency is currently trading 2.3% lower than where it started the month, sparking thoughts of the worst uptake in recent years.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin may reflect one of its poorest October performances since 2013.
- Bull markets typically see minimum gains of 40% in previous years during this time.
- A potential policy shift from the Federal Reserve could impact market movement ahead of its meeting next week.
Following Bitcoin’s initial rise to record highs earlier this month, many bulls have found the market chilling, with the price fluctuating within a narrow band of $107,000 to $111,500.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
With historical data showing the average upside for October since 2013 standing at 20%, Bitcoin would need to reach over $130,000 to meet that trend. However, if it closes the month down by 4% or more, it would mean its worst performance in a dozen years.
THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER.
The only worse one was 2014 (-13%).
2013: +60%
2017: +50%
2021: +40%
2025: -4%
Bad Uptober usually means one thing: MOONVEMBER. pic.twitter.com/6BMrNp4afD
— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) October 23, 2025
The overall performance this October is disheartening for bulls, especially compared to prior years like 2017 and 2021, which saw significant gains.
A Critical Moment for “Uptober”
Recent analytics provided by network economist Timothy Peterson place the current price trends of Bitcoin in context. He noted that historically, a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s annual performance materializes after October 3rd.
Bitcoin October performance comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Peterson has mentioned that news from the US Federal Reserve indicating a stall in quantitative tightening could serve as a significant market signal during their meeting on October 29. Expectations are building that the Fed may lower interest rates, providing more favorable options for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets moving forward.
This article should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
