Bitcoin continues to exhibit its characteristic volatility, with warnings from BitMine chair Tom Lee that it might still lose as much as half of its value in future downturns.

“I’m sure there will be 50% drawdowns,” Lee stated in an interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, published Thursday.

According to recent market discussions, some participants believe that Bitcoin’s volatility is diminishing, thanks to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growing institutional interest. However, Lee contends that Bitcoin remains influenced by the stock market and may exaggerate its fluctuations.

Lee expressed: “The stock market has more frequent 25% drawdowns. The stock market has made a lot of progress over the last six years; we’ve had an unusually large amount of 25% drawdowns.”

“So if the S&P is down 20, Bitcoin could be down 40,” he added.

A Transforming Trajectory for Bitcoin

Lee noted that Bitcoin may be deviating from its usual four-year cycle—which historically indicated a peak in October—implying a potential for a “longer cycle” ahead.

Bitcoin market performance Bitcoin has appreciated by 2.30% over the last week. Source: CoinMarketCap

Earlier this month, during an appearance on the Bankless podcast, Lee reaffirmed his prediction for Bitcoin to reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of the year. A 50% drop from such a level would see Bitcoin’s price stabilize around $125,000, close to its current all-time high.

Should Bitcoin have already peaked, as some proponents of the four-year cycle suggest, a 50% decline from its present value of $109,981 could drop it to about $54,990—an amount not seen since September 2024, according to CoinMarketCap.

Similar Insights from Peter Brandt

Lee’s perspective isn’t isolated, as veteran trader Peter Brandt has recently echoed similar bearish sentiments, noting a correlation between Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the soybean market in the 1970s before it saw a 50% decline.

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Such significant price declines for Bitcoin have been witnessed in the past, notably when it fell roughly 50% from its peak of $69,000 in November 2021 to around $35,000 by late January 2022.

In contrast, other Bitcoin stakeholders remain optimistic, including Michael Saylor, who mentioned in June that “Winter is not coming back.”