Polymarket now indicates a 12% probability that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried may receive a pardon this year, following the recent pardon of Binance’s CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.

Polymarket’s odds for the event skyrocketed from 5.6% to 12% in just 12 hours, accumulating over $6.5 million in wagers, including $302,090 placed specifically for Bankman-Fried.

Another market regarding whether Bankman-Fried will be released from custody in 2025 climbed from 4.3% to 19.1% before sliding back to 15.5% later.

Although Bankman-Fried has submitted an appeal to mitigate his 25-year sentence, major changes before year-end seem unlikely, making a pardon from Trump his most viable route for early release.

Polymarket odds of SBF being released from custody in 2025. Source: Polymarket

However, CZ’s pardon has generated discussions about whether Bankman-Fried merits similar clemency, with many asserting he does not.

Experts Weigh In: Comparison of Sentences

Critics have highlighted the disparity between their offenses, highlighting that CZ breached US Anti-Money Laundering regulations by facilitating illicit transactions through Binance, while Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud and conspiracy, embezzling billions in customer funds.

CZ received a four-month sentence, in stark contrast to Bankman-Fried’s substantial 25-year term, which was confirmed last year.

Crypto attorney Jake Chervinsky voiced his skepticism about the likelihood of a pardon for Bankman-Fried, indicating that his past as a “Democratic mega-donor” will significantly affect public perception:

“His name is half punch line half curse word in DC. Not a single serious person wants this.”

Source: Ryan Sean Adams

In another statement, Sasha Hodder, leading Hodder Law, asserted that the nature of CZ’s crime lacks the gravitas of Bankman-Fried’s or the former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon:

“Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance operated as a real exchange. Withdrawals always worked. His ‘crime’ was compliance-related, not criminal in the moral sense.”

Regarding the pardon, Trump mentioned he had been informed that what CZ did was “not even a crime” and that he was “persecuted by the Biden administration.”

CZ is known to be a major supporter of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto initiative.