Key takeaways:

• Since 2024, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and outflows have been the main factors driving Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
• With the balances on exchanges at multi-year lows, significant orders now encompass greater movement in the order book.
• Large Bitcoin holders often distribute their trades or utilize over-the-counter (OTC) markets to reduce the visibility of their transactions.
• Various factors such as funding rates, open interest, currency fluctuations, and yields often play a larger role in determining market direction than the trades of any single large holder.

Everyone is aware that whales impact Bitcoin (BTC) prices, but their effect can now be overshadowed by ETF activity and supply available for trading. For example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) holds more than 800,000 BTC on behalf of various investors, meaning that ETF flows can match the influence of individual holders.

What defines a “whale”?

In the crypto sphere, a whale is identified as an entity on the blockchain possessing at least 1,000 BTC, with many tracking monitoring these cases around the 1,000 to 5,000 BTC range.

Entities are clusters of addresses controlled by the same owner rather than an individual wallet. This distinction is essential for analytics companies to avoid counting the same holder more than once across different transactions.

Awareness of clusters helps separate wallet data from that of exchanges and corporate holdings, providing a clearer perspective of actual ownership levels.

How is Bitcoin’s distribution today, and who are the primary holders?

Following the introduction of US spot ETFs, a significant portion of Bitcoin has shifted into custodial pools. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT is recognized as the most significant holder, with approximately 800,000 BTC held on behalf of multiple investors.

Overall, US spot ETFs maintain about 1.66 million BTC, which constitutes around 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total limited supply. This centralizes execution even while ownership remains widely diversified.

Did you know?

US spot ETFs are currently custodians of over 1.6 million BTC, which represents just over 6% of the total supply held by various institutional and fund investors.

Do whales affect the market during the day?

Considerable buy orders can significantly sway market prices, especially when liquidity is thin in the order book. During bouts of volatility, the absence of liquidity amplifies the effects of large sell orders.

Consequently, many large holders fragment their orders or use OTC desks to enact trades subtly, minimizing their footprint in visible markets. Hence, much of whale activity tends to happen off exchanges, reducing the observable influence of individual wallets.

Across market cycles, whales do not consistently drive price increases. Research shows large holders frequently sell into rallies, often restraining upward movements instead of empowering them.

An observation from 2025 indicates that when Bitcoin surged beyond $120,000, it coincided with substantial ETF inflows, but many large holders took profits rather than enhancing buying momentum.

Did you know?

A notable “OG” whale recently traded thousands of BTC to acquire nearly $4 billion in Ether (ETH).

What factors truly dictate Bitcoin’s market movements?

Since the onset of 2024, the inflows and outflows from spot ETFs have become vital indicators of Bitcoin’s daily price trends. Strong inflows have frequently aligned with substantial price increases, while declines or weak inflows typically correlate with bearish market days.

Additionally, the liquidity available on exchanges is equally crucial. With recorded exchange balances at approximately 2.83 million BTC, this marks a six-year low, meaning there is less readily available to trade. The reduced liquidity magnifies even standard buying or selling maneuvers, resulting in more significant price shifts.

Monitoring funding rates and open interest provides insight into market positions and sentiment. As of late, with around 97% of the supply generating profit and a slight reduction in long-term holder distribution, markets have grown increasingly sensitive to new transactions and news.

Lastly, macroeconomic factors continue to influence crypto beta. Trends in the dollar currency, US yields, and broader market sentiment typically influence Bitcoin’s daily performance. On quieter days with fewer data releases, price ranges often tighten, whereas, during high volatility times, cryptocurrency markets generally follow suit.

Quick checklist to track:

• ETF flows: Analyze the net inflows/outflows of the previous day.
• Liquidity: Examine trends in exchange balances and the order book depth across key platforms.
• Positioning: Review funding rate heatmaps and open interest restoration following liquidation events.
• Macro economic factors: Observe the dollar index, ten-year yields, and overarching market breadth.

Can whales influence Bitcoin’s daily direction?

Large Bitcoin holders can still affect market prices, but they seldom dictate where the market concludes the trading day. When liquidity is limited, a significant order can provoke more pronounced market movements than usual. Now, most substantial holders distribute their trades into smaller batches or opt for OTC solutions, softening the impact visible on public platforms.

Since 2024, ETF inflows have been the primary driving force behind daily market shifts, alongside heavy trading volumes through these funds. Keeping an eye on previous day’s net inflows provides clarity on market tendencies.

With the available Bitcoin supply dwindling on exchanges to historic lows, even minimal buying or selling activity — by whales, market makers, or retail traders — can induce more pronounced price changes. Ultimately, macro factors remain dominant, with variations in currency and yields directly impacting risk perception and Bitcoin’s behavior.

This article does not provide investment advice. Trading and investment carry risks, and it is advisable for readers to undertake their own inquiries before making decisions.