Bitcoin continues to struggle, remaining low in its local trading range and prompting warnings from market commentators regarding a potential “worst Uptober ever” scenario.
Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin is nearing one of its worst October performances since 2013.
- Historically, bull market years have seen gains of a minimum of 40% during this month.
- Analysts suggest the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could impact the market favorably.
With Bitcoin (BTC) hanging precariously this October, bears may be taking charge, with prices currently 2.3% down from the start of the month, risking its first negative October change since 2018. Fresh reports show Bitcoin’s trading stuck within a narrow band between approximately $107,000 and $111,500.
BTC/USD Monthly Performance
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
To avoid marking its worst month in 12 years, Bitcoin would need to not fall more than 4%. This month has already proven disappointing, with the price surge at the start failing to maintain its momentum, leading to filled liquidation patterns.
Analyst Rekt Fencer commented:
“THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER.
The only worse one was 2014 (-13%).
2013: +60%
2017: +50%
2021: +40%
2025: -4%
Bad Uptober usually means one thing: MOONVEMBER. source
The atmosphere is particularly bleak considering prior years where a minimum of 40% gains were noted. In contrast, the weakest October performance was recorded in 2014, which featured a 13% decline.
Recent observations from network economist Timothy Peterson highlight that the price movements of Bitcoin this year are far from what bulls desired, noting that historically, significant gains tend to appear later in the month. Peterson’s previous studies indicate that around 60% of Bitcoin’s annual performance is attributed to actions taken post-October 3rd.
Expectations are building towards the Federal Reserve potentially suggesting an end to quantitative tightening at its meeting on October 29, which might provide critical insights for market movements. Analysts anticipate that interest rate cuts may be forthcoming, leading to conditions more favorable for cryptocurrencies and risk assets.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice. Each investment decision should be independently researched and validated.
