Bitcoin Accumulation Signals Indicate Late-Stage Cycle Development, Not A Sure End: Insights from CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s current price behavior is sparking discussions about the potential conclusion of the ongoing bull cycle. Nonetheless, various accumulation trends among Bitcoin (BTC) investors suggest that we are witnessing late-stage maturity instead of a definitive end.

According to a report from CryptoQuant, recent on-chain data indicates that while the short-term momentum for Bitcoin is declining, the long-term structural demand remains robust. This is evident from the accumulation patterns observed in the dolphin cohort, a group of investors consisting of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), corporations, and large BTC holders.

Late-Stage Maturity or Cycle Conclusion?

CryptoQuant analysts believe that the dolphin cohort serves as the foundation of the current bull cycle and has become a crucial group to watch. These addresses, which maintain balances between 100 and 1,000 BTC, now hold the largest percentage of the circulating Bitcoin supply, accounting for 26% or approximately 5.16 million BTC. In comparison, whale, fish, and humback cohorts represent a combined total of just 21.32%, 21.57%, and 14.06% of circulating BTC, respectively.

Given that a significant portion of BTC holdings is centralized within the dolphin cohort, their activities can greatly influence market trends. Analysts have noted that increased accumulation by dolphins has previously coincided with price increases, whereas a reduction in accumulation usually precedes distribution or corrections.

In 2025, dolphins have emerged as the leading accumulators, adding over 681,000 BTC to their holdings. Meanwhile, other investor groups have experienced net declines. This trend indicates that larger investors and institutions are absorbing supply from smaller holders, thereby supporting demand during this cycle.

Dolphins Continue Their Accumulation

As certain investor groups decrease their holdings, the sustainability of the bull cycle increasingly relies on the continued accumulation from dolphins. If there is a slowdown in their accumulation rate, the market could shift from expansion to consolidation.

For the bull cycle to continue its upward trajectory, the dolphin cohort’s yearly growth needs to remain above its 365-day moving average. Currently, dolphin holdings are increasing at an annualized rate of 907,000 BTC, surpassing the 365-day moving average of 730,000 BTC. However, the 30-day growth of their balances has fallen below the 30-day average, signaling a potential decrease in demand. Analysts have noted that this slowdown correlates with Bitcoin’s recent price correction following its peak above $126,000.

Despite this slowdown, the overall market dynamics indicate that demand from dolphins remains stable, suggesting that the bull cycle is in its later stages rather than coming to an end. Bitcoin needs to accelerate its monthly accumulation rate to reach new heights.