
Fed Week Unfolds: Will Bitcoin Drop Before a Surge?
Bitcoin remains stable at over $115,000, as traders watch for a potential pullback to the $111K–$113K support zone ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
Bitcoin currently trades above $115,000 after overcoming a significant resistance level recently. As the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting looms, traders are focusing on a potential pullback.
Traders are monitoring the $111K–$113K range which is regarded as a likely support area. The current setup appears to offer a fresh entry opportunity ahead of the market’s next upward movement.
Bitcoin Holds Above Breakout Level
Last week, Bitcoin surged past $112,000, breaking through a resistance level that had remained intact for several weeks. Michaël van de Poppe commented:
“The $112K marked the tipping point for me.”
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has firmly remained in the $115,000 range.
BTC Price
Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
If Bitcoin sees a retracement, the $111,000–$113,000 zone is expected to be retested. This area is now viewed as a support level after functioning as resistance during the recent price movement.
The next resistance is positioned between $119,500 and $120,000. If Bitcoin can navigate through this barrier, it may test its previous all-time high around $124,100. Some traders speculate this could happen in early November.
Ted stated:
“Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $118,000 zone, and a new ATH could happen in 1–2 weeks.”
Bitcoin has also managed to close above its 20-week moving average, which is considered a strong indicator of long-term trends, according to Benjamin Cowen.
CME Futures Gap Near Support
A price gap has been identified on the CME Bitcoin Futures chart between $111,800 and $113,800, following a weekend rally linked to progress in US–China trade discussions. These gaps typically occur when Bitcoin prices operate outside of CME trading hours.
Daan Crypto Trades noted: “These have been getting closed within a few days,” but emphasized that he only closely observes them when prices approach the area. Currently, Bitcoin is near 2–3% of the gap, making it a key focus for short-term traders.
On-Chain Cost Levels Stabilize
Bitcoin is trading slightly above wallet entry costs for both new and short-term holders, which includes cost basis levels between $110,000 and $113,000. Remaining above these levels means many recent buyers are in profit.
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk reported that nearly 7 million BTC are now in a profitable state, comprising 5.1 million held by wallets active for less than six months and 1.8 million attributable to new participants. This level of profitability often boosts holding strength and minimizes acute selling pressure.
Additionally, in 2025, long-term Bitcoin holders are re-engaging. As reported by CryptoPotato, data indicates that 270,000 BTC that had been dormant for over seven years have moved during this year—surpassing 2024’s entire yearly total of 255,000 BTC and greatly exceeding 2023’s 59,000 BTC—with two months still remaining.
