Bitcoin remains in a neutral-to-bullish consolidation phase, fluctuating between its 100- and 200-day moving averages. The $116K barrier is the primary resistance to maintain momentum, while the $109K threshold serves as a bullish invalidation point.

Until one of these levels is decisively breached, the market is likely to oscillate within this range, accumulating liquidity ahead of its next significant move.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has rebounded notably from the $109K support area, which aligns with the 200-day moving average (MA), and is currently testing key short-term levels. The latest upswing has propelled the price into the $114K–$116K resistance zone, coinciding with the 100-day MA.

This area represents a crucial inflection point: for a sustained advance above $116K, substantial confirmation is required, as rejection signals from the 100-day MA indicate selling pressure from short-term holders.

As long as the asset stays trapped between the 100- and 200-day MAs, Bitcoin is expected to prolong its consolidation phase, gearing up for the next significant trend expansion. The $109K–$110K range constitutes a vital defense line for bullish participants.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, BTC has recently broken above a symmetrical triangle and showcased renewed bullish momentum before pulling back slightly from resistance. The breakout pushed the price into the $114K–$116K supply zone, where early signs of rejection are materializing.

If the price manages to stabilize above the triangle’s upper boundary (around $112K–$113K), the structure would remain constructive, paving the way for movement towards the $118K–$120K zone. Conversely, a breakdown below $111K could indicate a loss of short-term momentum, re-exposing the $108K demand area.

This setup indicates volatility compression near key levels, suggesting that a directional breakout—either reclaiming $116K or failing below $111K—will dictate Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Bitcoin 4 Hour Chart

Sentiment Analysis

The Futures Average Order Size metric indicates a significant shift in market engagement dynamics in recent weeks. During the rebound from the $108K–$109K demand zone, the market witnessed a reduction in large whale order activity (indicated by declining green clusters) alongside an uptick in smaller retail-driven order sizes (highlighted in red).

This trend typically infers that institutional traders are decreasing leverage exposure, granting retail traders the lead in dictating short-term market movements—a common characteristic during mid-range consolidations or late-stage local recoveries.

Historically, periods dominated by retail activity have often coincided with short-term distribution or range-bound price behavior, as larger players await opportunities to re-intervene at lower prices. In contrast, significant expansions in whale orders, as observed in late 2024 and early 2025, often precede major directional rallies stemming from institutional maneuvers.

At present, Bitcoin’s price hovers near $114K, combined with a contraction in large order sizes, signaling a neutral to cautious sentiment amongst professional traders. A resurgence of larger orders around the $109K–$110K support could indicate renewed institutional interest, potentially reinforcing a bullish continuation towards the $120K–$125K mark.

Until that occurs, market structure indicates Bitcoin is in a short-term equilibrium phase, where retail-driven volatility determines price action amidst subdued institutional involvement, pending confirmation from critical technical markers.

Futures Average Order Size