Bitcoin is increasingly hard to purchase for ordinary investors, raising concerns about the longevity of the current bull market cycle that typically spans four years.

The research company 10x Research notes that Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming too costly for ongoing retail demand, potentially jeopardizing the anticipated prolongation of the current bullish market phase.

Despite optimistic predictions for a market extension based on prior cycles, 10x asserts that such expectations are ‘highly questionable.’

“Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns,” the company mentioned in a report published Tuesday, adding: “While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.”

Given that Bitcoin is just a 16-year-old asset, making definitive statistical inferences from such a short timeline is indeed ‘highly questionable,’ according to 10x Research.

Source: 10xresearch.com

Related: Arthur Hayes calls for $1M Bitcoin as new Japan PM orders economic stimulus

Projected Bitcoin Price Trends

While various prediction models, including the widely referenced stock-to-flow model that suggests Bitcoin might reach $1 million, 10x Research forecasts a cycle peak of $125,000 by the year’s end.

This prediction is notably conservative compared to estimates from other market analysts. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick anticipates a Bitcoin price reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 amid a major liquidation that could provide buying opportunities.

In a previous interview from February, Kendrick has even suggested that Bitcoin could skyrocket to $500,000 by the end of Trump’s potential second term in 2028.

Traders recognized as ‘smart money’ on the Nansen platform are increasingly ramping up their Bitcoin holdings, with Binance-native Bitcoin (BTCB) ranking as the 11th most-held token among these investors, according to data from Nansen.

Smart money traders, holdings. Source: Nansen