Bitcoin is heading for a rare October loss, breaking a streak that lasted six years, amid divided trader sentiment regarding its future.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin (BTC) will record a losing October, ending a series of gains since 2019.
- Uncertainty among traders grows as some anticipate significant drops while others predict surges in Q4.
Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin returns, but this year marks a departure from that trend, with prices currently down 3.35%.
Breaking the “Uptober” Streak
For years, October has been known for strong Bitcoin performance, with only two failing months recorded in the last decade: 2014 and 2018. The current market, experiencing sharp declines, has traders on high alert, especially after mid-month turmoil provoked by US-China tensions and the Federal Reserve’s rate adjustments.
“Last day of the month - we need a strong green candle today or we’ll see our first red October close in 7 years,” said an analyst on X.
Monthly Returns Data
Bitcoin monthly returns, %. Source: CoinGlass
During October, fears were heightened by a sudden crash linked to tariffs from the US and China, coupled with the Fed’s minor interest rate cut, which failed to boost market confidence. “October turned red for the first time in 7 years!” another trader remarked.
Industry analysis suggests volatility in Bitcoin is at an all-time high as October has historically offered strong returns, but worries loom that November may not follow suit.
What Lies Ahead for November?
Despite fears of an ongoing downturn, some enthusiasts believe this October dip could pave the way for a robust November resurgence. However, analysts underline the risks, reminding that the last red October in 2018 led to severe price drops in November. “Should we be worried this time?” was a thoughtful question posed by one analyst who noted the correlation—or lack thereof—between weak Octobers and future performance.
With historically November being Bitcoin’s best month—averaging gains of 46% over 12 years—investors remain poised for major shifts as the year closes, with some predicting Bitcoin could surge towards $150,000 by the end of 2025.
This article does not provide specific investment advice. Please ensure to conduct thorough research prior to making investment decisions.
