Although Bitcoin recently climbed over $125,000 in the first week of October 2025, the ongoing “Uptober” tradition of consistent gains may face challenges. Historically, October is known for impressive returns, showing only two losses in 2014 and 2018, alongside continuous gains from 2019 to 2024.

Yet, indicators suggest this month might disrupt that trend. Recent on-chain data indicates Bitcoin must reclaim its holders’ cost-basis zone swiftly to avert renewed downward pressure and a longer correction period.

Deep Correction Fears

According to Bitcoin Vector, the Risk-Off Signal seems to weaken when Bitcoin hovers around the $106,000-$108,000 range, indicating that the market is becoming more adept at absorbing volatility shocks—a hallmark of maturity. However, they caution that maintaining this stability hinges crucially on reclaiming the cost-basis zone soon. A failure to do so could rekindle bearish pressures, worsening the ongoing correction.

In the meantime, Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that the stagnation in Bitcoin’s price shares a connection with profit-taking from long-term holders (LTHs). Reports reveal this segment has sold off around 810,000 BTC since July 1, decreasing their assets from 15.5 million to 14.6 million. Nevertheless, Bitcoin managed to reach two additional all-time highs amidst this selling pressure, bolstered by a strong market demand. Adler mentions that if LTHs continue to sell off their holdings, Bitcoin’s future price increases might be limited, restraining the market’s bullish prospects.

Additionally, CryptoQuant has identified that long-term Bitcoin whales, seasoned investors who endure multiple market cycles, have just realized a significant profit of roughly $271 million—marking their third substantial profit spike this year. Such occurrences often result in sharp price fluctuations as liquidity adjusts to whale movements. Analysts believe that these whales might either foresee short-term downturns or are optimizing their portfolios.

The next significant indicator lies with short-term holders: if they are able to absorb these profits, a market consolidation may follow; however, if selling pressures rise, it could lead to broader cooldowns in the market.

$123,000 Target If Bulls Hold

In communication with CryptoPotato, Arthur Azizov suggested Bitcoin is currently navigating within a specified range following a period of lateral movement since July 2025. The cryptocurrency recently bounced back from the lower limit of this range, suggesting a potential uptick could be on the horizon.

If external market factors remain favorable, Azizov anticipates Bitcoin may escalate towards $123,000 and possibly revisit its previous all-time high before the year concludes. However, slipping beneath the vital $100,000 threshold and settling there could prolong its decline, possibly reaching between $96,000 and $93,000. He added that $100,000 serves as a psychologically significant barrier and has consistently acted as a strong support zone, similar to the level Bitcoin rebounded from back in June 2025.

He also noted:

“Analyzing the latest bullish wave that started in April 2025, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level hovers near $91,000. Notably, this also aligns with a weekly imbalance zone, which could predict increased reversals if prices drop to that area. Yet, I do not foresee Bitcoin plummeting that low—numerous factors are currently backing the asset, preventing such drastic pullbacks.”