Bitcoin has historically performed exceptionally well in November, often seeing an increase in value of about 42.51% since 2013. This trend suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to exceed $160,000 in value this month, given that history tends to repeat itself.
A key consideration, however, according to crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research, is the influence of various macroeconomic factors impacting this trend. “I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors,” he stated.
Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the US Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates, while ongoing negotiations between the US and China may ease trade tensions, which could be beneficial for Bitcoin. However, the government shutdown and existing tariffs add layers of economic uncertainty.
US / China Trade Tensions
A meeting scheduled between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday is perceived as a constructive step towards alleviating the trade conflict between the two nations. Trump described the discussions as “amazing,” with a focus on tariff reductions, US soybean import resumption, and crackdowns on the fentanyl trade.
Trump expects that a trade agreement with China will materialize shortly. He believes tariff threats against China contributed to a recent drop in crypto prices, with an extensive liquidation of assets occurring on October 11.
Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University, noted that while the meeting might represent a brief pause in the trade conflict, resolution is still distant.
US Fed Rate Decisions
The Federal Reserve has just enacted a quarter-point rate cut, achieving its lowest lending rate in three years. There is currently a 63% probability of another rate reduction anticipated, as indicated by tools monitoring Fed rate changes.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, indicated that the decision was not a guaranteed outcome.
Fed rate cuts historically boost Bitcoin’s appeal by lowering borrowing costs, incentivizing investment in riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the Fed’s recent choice to suspend its quantitative tightening program on December 1 could further support Bitcoin.
Ongoing US Government Shutdown
The ongoing US government shutdown may soon enter its fifth consecutive week, approaching a record duration. With Republicans and Democrats unable to agree on a spending plan, Trump urged Republicans to eliminate the “Senate filibuster” rule, alleging it as the cause of the impasse. He emphasized, “THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
The resolution of this shutdown is vital for the US Securities and Exchange Commission to approve multiple cryptocurrency ETFs, as well as to progress on important crypto legislation, like the CLARITY Act.
