As October begins, Bitcoin appears to be losing its upward momentum, causing analysts to question more optimistic projections for the cryptocurrency’s price by the end of 2025. While Tom Lee of BitMine and Arthur Hayes from BitMEX have previously predicted Bitcoin could soar to between $200,000 and $250,000, this outlook seems increasingly unlikely as Bitcoin’s price stagnates.
Houston Morgan, a ShapeShift analyst, expressed concern, stating, “We don’t expect crypto to go any higher than $125K USD in 2025.” This figure closely aligns with Bitcoin’s record high of just above $126,000 reached on October 4.
Morgan emphasized the need for Bitcoin to separate its performance from announcements made by former President Donald Trump if it hopes to experience another significant price increase.
Bitcoin’s recent downturn saw it drop to four-month lows near $100,800, prompting Bitfinex analysts to note that long-term holders are selling, creating ongoing pressure on market dynamics. They noted, “this sustained outflow aligns with the broader signs of exhaustion visible across the market, as long-term holders continue to offload into declining demand.”
If Bitcoin fails to recover to above $116,000 soon, the threat of further declines looms large as the year draws to an end.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges overall market sentiment, plunged to a low score of 21 out of 100, indicating ‘Extreme Fear’ in trading behavior. This sluggishness stands in stark contrast to previous bullish predictions that suggested rapid climbs in Bitcoin’s value were forthcoming.
Although some enthusiasts remain hopeful for an end-of-year surge to $250,000, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, cautioned that significant obstacles would need to be overcome for this to happen effectively.
Matt Hougan of Bitwise suggested that while 2026 might shape up to be a good year, “2026 will likely be a bear market, similar to prior midterm years,” according to financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth. Veteran trader Peter Brandt advised against overly optimistic expectations, hinting at possible drops down to $60,000.
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