Bitcoin has seen a significant decline of 20% from its recent peak, dividing analysts on whether it will return slowly or surge in a parabolic rise soon. After peaking at $126,200 on October 6, it now floats just below the $100,000 mark. According to network economist Timothy Peterson, this decrease aligns with historical recovery trends, as he stated:

“This is the third 20% drawdown from an all-time high since 2024. The average recovery to a new ATH from these levels is 2–6 months.”

20% Bitcoin drawdown since 2024. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Peterson’s analysis, derived from AI-assisted simulations, shows a less than 20% chance of Bitcoin touching $140,000 by year-end, while estimating a 50% chance of it closing above $108,000. Meanwhile, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, has revised BTC’s year-end target to $120,000, down from $185,000, highlighting an evolving market landscape that now includes more institutional involvement and reduced volatility.

“Future gains may unfold at a slower, steadier pace as Bitcoin transitions into a maturity era.”

Conversely, crypto trader Titan of Crypto suggests a more optimistic scenario, projecting a new all-time high around $130,000 by year-end, albeit warning of a possible drop below $70,000 by early 2026.

Titan of Crypto’s Wyckoff distribution analysis. Source: X

In a differing perspective, Bitcoin commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera argues that current conditions may set the stage for a significant rally, noting that 29.2% of Bitcoin’s supply is underwater, akin to patterns before major price surges in 2017, 2021, and 2024.

Perera highlighted that if the present conditions hold, barring major market disruptions, Bitcoin could enter a new explosive growth cycle in the next 180 days. This article does not contain investment advice or guarantees. Please do your own research before making any financial decisions.