Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $84,000, causing billions of dollars in leveraged positions to be wiped out in just hours. This dramatic decrease was marked by an astonishing –4.45 Z-score, indicating one of the largest market distortions registered in cryptocurrency history.

Volatility Spikes as Binance Metrics Show Rare –4.45 Z-Score

Data from Arab Chain highlighted significant swings in market conditions on Binance, where Bitcoin dipped as low as $83,500 after brief rebounds and swift retracements. Analysts noted that the captured –4.45 Z-score reflects abnormal market behavior.

“Typically, when this indicator reaches such extreme values, it signals a clear ‘distortion’ in market behavior often linked to liquidity shocks or sudden sell-offs triggered by the liquidation of highly leveraged positions,” they wrote.

Additionally, Binance’s 24-hour change rate hovered around –3.4%, with an increase in daily standard deviation, indicating growing volatility following several calm days in the $89,000 to $91,000 range.

One of the main catalysts identified by analysts at XWIN Research Japan was a sudden shift in expectations regarding the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Speculation arose that Governor Kazuo Ueda might announce a rate hike in December, which led to a rapid appreciation of the Japanese Yen. This triggered a swift collapse of the popular Yen carry trade, leading to a quick decline in Bitcoin as funding rates turned negative and open interest fell from about $30 billion to roughly $27 billion.

The Critical Line Holding Back a Deeper Cycle Breakdown

While the short-term outlook seems dominated by leveraged liquidation, on-chain analysts are looking for longer-term support levels that could determine Bitcoin’s cycle health.

A noteworthy observation from the market analyst Crazzyblockk suggested that the behavior of Bitcoin buyers from 12 to 18 months ago serves as a key indicator of market strength. Their collective cost basis hovers around $70,000, meaning Bitcoin must stay above this price to remain profitable for them.

Maintaining above this price could support overall market stability, as falling below this threshold may lead to severe bearish conditions reminiscent of the downturns seen in 2018 and 2022.

Recent analyses by Glassnode indicated that the late-November price drop into the low-$80,000 range might have established a solid area of buyer interest. The movement has likely formed one of 2025’s strongest accumulation zones around $80,000.