In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, James Check challenges prevailing narratives about Bitcoin using onchain data while outlining his insights for the year 2026.

Bitcoin’s current market price may appear the same as before, but analyst James Check suggests the underlying dynamics have shifted significantly. In addressing whether we are in a bull or bear market, Check observes that, despite Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining similar price levels, metrics like leverage, investor cost bases, and selling behaviors have transformed considerably.

He points out that much of the investment in Bitcoin was made at higher price points, resulting in many holders currently experiencing losses, fostering a more cautious market sentiment.

Among the myths of the current cycle, Check disputes the notion that long-term holders tend not to sell. His analysis reveals that coins of varying ages have been returning to the market at a markedly rapid rate, affecting recent price movements.

Additionally, he refutes claims that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or influential figures like Michael Saylor have single-handedly dominated the Bitcoin market. These elements are significant, but they are merely parts of a larger, increasingly liquid market capable of withstanding substantial capital flows without the extreme volatility of previous cycles.

As he looks ahead to 2026, Check offers a comprehensive framework, urging investors to balance optimism against outright pessimism while also discussing themes like sovereign adoption and long-term investment risks that are often overlooked.

For further insights, you can watch the full interview with James Check on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel.

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