Crypto markets faced another wave of forced liquidation in the past day, driving Bitcoin (BTC) firstly below $74,000 before it managed to recover upwards past $76,800. Over the last week, the asset has experienced a 13% drop.

Market Overview
Current market data suggests an extended bear market outlook with revised lower projections for Bitcoin’s cycle bottom.

Revised Expectations

Renowned crypto analyst Doctor Profit has updated his forecast for Bitcoin’s bottom range to now be between $54,000 and $44,000.
He clarified that the recent drop aligns with a significant technical development where Bitcoin fell below the 100-week moving average (MA100 Weekly)—a crucial metric for indicating the phase of the market. He recounts that Bitcoin’s breach above this average in October 2023 validated a previous bullish trend, while its return below signals a move towards a bearish trend.

Doctor Profit also indicated that the emergence of a ‘death cross’ reinforces this trajectory. He observed that this pattern mirrors the market conditions from the 2021-2022 cycle peak and its subsequent decline. He further commented on the abruptness of Bitcoin falling beneath the MA100 Weekly, deeming it a critical breakdown from a bearish flag pattern he has periodically mentioned.

Looking forward, he anticipates that Bitcoin may close the upcoming week under the MA100 Weekly, necessitating another period of consolidation before descending towards a target of $70,000, which he does not believe is the cycle’s bottom. Previously, he had foreseen a bottom near the $50,000-$60,000 range when Bitcoin traded between $115,000 and $125,000; however, the revised models now predict even lower values.

Based on his new calculations, Doctor Profit identifies a potential new low zone between $54,000 and $44,000 as the most probable area for the ultimate cycle bottom, especially as the asset fell below Strategy’s average entry price near $76,000, heightening market panic.

Future Considerations

Doctor Profit cautioned that external narratives, particularly concerning speculative trading linked to upcoming Epstein-related documentation, could amplify fear in the market, regardless of their validity.

Broader Market Dynamics

Further exacerbating the negative outlook, recent insights from Matrixport indicate a decline in demand from traditional financial investors investing in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past few months, Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant net outflows, despite the recent activation of these products for US clients. It was noted that a meaningful influx of capital was last observed in July, with a brief spike in October, yet the overall interest has waned since summer.

According to Matrixport, Bitcoin may require a new or revitalized narrative to attract renewed interest from traditional investors and establish a solid floor.