Bitcoin (BTC) fell to about $60,000 on February 5 after sliding roughly 50% from its peak near $126,000, according to a market note from Binance’s research.

The report indicates that the extent and structure of this decline suggest a market influenced more by institutional investments and macroeconomic factors rather than retail speculation.

Decline Data and Macro Influences

On February 13, Binance Research noted that this 50% pullback is a ‘modest correction’ compared to historical downturns, presenting instances of nine significant drawdowns.

Examples referenced include two massive drops of 94% in 2010 and 2011, a 78% decline between November 2021 and November 2022, and an 84% drop during the 2017 to 2018 bear market.

The report attributes the current downturn to broader economic conditions rather than failures specific to the cryptocurrency sector. It highlights stable labor data and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies as factors contributing to tighter liquidity and reduced interest in risk assets. The research notes a shift in investment capital towards AI-linked stocks and more stable sectors, making the competition tougher for digital assets.

According to price data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin is trading just under $67,000 and has witnessed minimal daily movement but a weekly gain of about 3%. Longer-term trends show a weaker momentum, with losses nearing 19% in two weeks and almost 30% over the past month.

Binance Research observes a sharper decline among altcoins, with significant capital shift towards larger assets. This trend can be linked to the emergence of an overcrowded token market, marked by over 11 million new tokens launched in 2025, many of which are no longer actively traded.

Indicators Suggest Different Market Conditions

Notably, analysis from Alphractal revealed that Bitcoin’s long-term Realized Cap Impulse has turned negative for the first time in three years, signaling potential prolonged downturns as capital inflows diminish. Joao Wedson, the firm’s founder, indicates that institutional buying and ETF accumulation haven’t completely counterbalanced supply pressures.

Moreover, macroeconomic uncertainty is underscored by CryptoQuant’s Global Uncertainty Index reaching a historic peak, surpassing levels observed during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. High uncertainty usually prompts investors to limit exposure to volatile investments.

However, Binance researchers assert that structural market participation has strengthened. They referenced stable assets under management in spot Bitcoin ETFs, heightened stablecoin supply near cycle highs, and increased interest in tokenized real-world assets. A recent example includes BlackRock utilizing Uniswap infrastructure for its tokenized treasury fund trades, indicating that traditional financial entities are exploring blockchain for settlement purposes.