Data shared by on-chain analyst Crypto Dan indicates that long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are currently selling at a loss. This trend may suggest that the market is nearing a phase where selling pressure diminishes, which could signal an impending major cycle low.

Insights from the Data

Crypto Dan reported on March 31 that a crucial metric, the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), which gauges whether Bitcoin sold by those holding the asset for over 155 days yields profits or losses, has dipped below 1.0. A value above 1.0 typically indicates gains, while below 1.0 signifies losses.

Dan emphasized that when the LTH-SOPR declines below 1.0, it carries more significance than the selling actions of short-term holders because long-term holders react less to fleeting price changes. Their selling at a loss often reflects expansive fear in the market.

Notably, when long-term holders begin taking losses, it suggests that short-term holders have already either exited or sustained damage, placing many market participants in a negative position.

Historically, such circumstances have culminated in what Crypto Dan describes as ’the final stage of fear’ prior to a gradual weakening of selling pressure, resulting in market bottoms or at least near long-term lows. While he refrained from declaring the current phase as the absolute bottom, he suggested it is a moment where opportunities might emerge amidst fear.

Simultaneously, a significant movement among larger market players has been noted by analyst Darkfost, indicating that whale selling on Binance has noticeably decreased after a period of heavy distribution.

Future Outlook by Analysts

The capitulation data isn’t limited to on-chain statistics; chartist Ali Martinez has identified a recurring technical signal linked to Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day SMA crossover on the 3-day chart. He noted that such patterns have emerged near cycle bottoms in previous years—2014, 2018, and 2022.

In this cycle, the crossover occurred on February 27. Based on previous drops of 40% to 50% preceding three bottom points he referenced, Martinez speculates possible accumulation zones around $40,000, with potential scenarios pushing BTC as low as $30,000.

Utilizing legacy valuation models, including the CVDD Floor, currently near the $45,500 level, analyst Willy Woo estimates that the bottom could lie between $46,000 and $54,000. Meanwhile, Doctor Profit places a plausible floor range between $35,000 and $45,000 as the narrative continues, while also suggesting that BTC may experience a short-term rally towards the $79,000 to $84,000 before the final downturn.