What You Need to Know:

• Two of Canada’s major newspapers reported competing stories that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political career may be concluding soon.
• Bettors on Polymarket express confidence that he will resign by Friday, although opinions diverge about an early announcement as suggested by the Toronto Star.

Will He Stay or Go?

The question is pressing for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as speculation about his resignation grows. Polymarket bettors are actively weighing in on when he might officially announce his departure.

In recent days, bettors have placed significant bets on the potential timing of a resignation, showcased in contracts with substantial volumes assessing whether Trudeau could step down by February or April. Another contract even queries whether opposition parties might prompt an election before summer.

Early discussions spurred from claims that his resignation could take place as early as Monday or by mid-week.

The Toronto Star predicts that an announcement will arrive as soon as the beginning of the week, while the Globe and Mail elaborates that it might occur before a scheduled caucus meeting for the national Liberal Party on Wednesday.

However, Polymarket participants express skepticism about a Monday announcement; one contract reflecting over $45,000 in bets posits only a 24% chance of a resignation occurring at the week’s start. Another contract, estimating his resignation by Wednesday, gives that a higher probability at 72%, albeit with less monetary backing of approximately $10,000. Conversely, a proposal which assesses whether he will resign by Friday presents an 80% likelihood.

Despite various media reports asserting confidence in imminent change, Reuters cites conflicting intel from a different source, underscoring that Trudeau has yet to finalize his decision.

Polling results have placed Justin Trudeau's approval ratings at a meager 22%, while analysis implies that should a vote occur now, the Liberal Party might face a major defeat, securing only 46 seats against the Conservatives' predicted 225.

Additionally, speculation around absurd scenarios, such as Canada becoming the 51st state of the U.S. by July, garners mixed reactions among bettors.