What You Should Know:
- Two of Canada's leading newspapers reported conflicting news about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's impending resignation.
- Bettors on Polymarket are betting that he will step down by Friday, although some doubt an announcement will occur as early as Monday as suggested by the Toronto Star.
The Situation
Will he resign, or will he remain? It appears Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation might be on the horizon. Bettors on Polymarket are actively speculating on when his departure will be announced.
Several contracts related to Trudeau’s potential departure are drawing attention, each with considerable trading volumes. They inquire whether he will resign before https://polymarket.com/event/trudeau-resigns-before-february February or https://polymarket.com/event/trudeau-resigns-before-february April. Another contract discusses if https://polymarket.com/event/trudeau-no-confidence-motion-passes-before-april?tid=1736161201033 opposition parties might prompt an election by spring.
Interest in Trudeau's fate surged after the media revealed differing reports about his resignation timing, suggesting a possible announcement either on Monday or before a Liberal Party Caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
- The Toronto Star predicts an announcement might arrive as early as Monday.
- The Globe and Mail suggests it will happen before the planned national caucus meeting on Wednesday.
Bettors remain uncertain whether an announcement could happen sooner than suggested. One contract betting on a resignation by Monday currently holds over $45,000 but predicts only a 24% chance that Trudeau will resign at the start of the week. Conversely, another inquiry about whether he will step down by Wednesday shows a 72% likelihood, albeit with only around $10,000 in volume. A third contract, asking if he will be gone by Friday, puts the possibility at 80%.
While both the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail have sources indicating a resignation is imminent, Reuters reports from another source claiming Trudeau hasn’t decided yet.
In terms of public sentiment, Canadian pollster Angus Reid gives Trudeau a 22% approval rating. According to polling data, if an election were held today, Trudeau's Liberals would obtain only 46 seats with the Conservatives winning 225, securing a majority in Canada’s Parliament.
Interestingly, Polymarket bettors are even speculating on the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state of the U.S. by July, currently setting odds at a mere 3% – a notion that originated as a joke from President-elect Donald Trump on social media.
