What’s Happening?

• Oppenheimer has reduced its forecast for Coinbase’s trading volume in 2025 from $1.6 trillion to $1.3 trillion.
• The cut is attributed to recession fears linked to fluctuating tariffs imposed by former President Trump, affecting retail trading.
• Despite gaining 69% market share in U.S. spot crypto trading, Coinbase faces challenges due to macroeconomic uncertainties.

Crypto exchange Coinbase is confronting a changing environment as uncertainties from tariff policies under former President Trump are dampening retail trading activities. Recently, Oppenheimer revised its trading volume forecast for 2025 downwards by 19%, citing a notable fall in risk appetite among traders.

Although there are more favorable signals from Washington towards cryptocurrency, indicating a pro-crypto atmosphere, market response has been tepid.

Analyst Owen Lau remarked, “Despite expectations following the elections of a pro-crypto environment in the U.S., the continuation of Trump’s erratic tariff threats has stoked fears of a bear market and a decline in retail trading.”

Coinbase stocks have dwindled by 30% this year, lagging behind bitcoin and the S&P 500. Nonetheless, analysts remain hopeful about Coinbase’s long-term prospects, believing it possesses significant potential in the crypto sector, provided it can navigate through the current tariff-related challenges.