Market Overview
Crypto markets experienced a downtrend on Thursday due to tighter macroeconomic signals and concerns related to global trade. During the Asian trading hours, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $104,700, reflecting a 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) hovered just under $2,860, marking a 1.8% drop for the day.
The recent price movements correspond with broader concerns following the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting where interest rates were held steady, though the Fed warned of the ongoing risks of inflation.
Seasonality Trends
Historically, the crypto market tends to slow down in June and July, a trend noted by QCP Capital, highlighting that BTC’s actual front-end volumes have fallen below 40%, removing risk premiums that stem from geopolitical events.
Current open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts shows little to no change, with a negative market skew indicating that traders are more concerned about potential pullbacks in the short term.
“No changes in the technical landscape, which continues to support upward movement,” stated Joel Kruger, a strategist with LMAX Group. “Bitcoin is on a bullish consolidation path, and a breakout past recent peaks could lead toward $145,000.”
In contrast, ETH is making progress despite still trailing its 2021 highs, with Kruger remarking that breaking past $2,900 could open doors to $3,400.
An encouraging development in the market is the U.S. Senate’s recent approval of a stablecoin framework, which is fostering a more favorable environment for regulatory policies surrounding cryptocurrencies.
“Globally, further advancements are paving the way for greater clarity and welcoming conditions for institutional crypto adoption,” Kruger emphasized.
Even so, short-term market dynamics seem cautious, as month-end expiry flows and a lack of significant catalysts could keep BTC trading in the $102,000 to $108,000 range for the foreseeable future.
Nevertheless, as history shows stronger market performance in the second half of the year, speculation rises that “the worst may be behind us,” according to Kruger, with many anticipating the next bullish surge to catch investors by surprise.
