Oil Prices and Their Impact on Bitcoin Amid Iran-Israel Tensions

As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, investors are closely monitoring oil prices, hoping for a significant increase due to the impending closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Notably, 30 minutes into trading, oil prices saw only a modest rise of 3%.

The Strait of Hormuz is crucial, accounting for over 20% of global oil supply. If it were to close, oil prices could soar, potentially reaching the $100 per barrel mark not seen since July 2022.

“Twenty-five years ago, if Iran had threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the price of crude oil would have spiked 50%. Today, nobody cares. Different world.”
— Dave Reiter (@TradesByDave), June 22, 2025

Oil Prices Slow To React

Despite expectations that oil prices would jump upon opening, they increased by just 3% shortly after the US military’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

This situation prompted many investors to turn towards crude oil stocks, anticipating a significant price increase. However, at 6:27 p.m. ET on June 22, Brent crude traded at $79.45 per barrel, up 3.17%, while the US benchmark, WTI, was at $76.19 per barrel.

Past conflicts have led to far more drastic price changes. For instance, in September 2019, when militants attacked Saudi Aramco facilities, oil prices rose nearly 20% in one day—the largest one-day increase in history.

The coordinated US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites resulted in visible damage to their infrastructure, with promises of retaliation from Tehran. Yet, the energy market remains calm, suggesting limited escalation.

Bitcoin’s Resilience During Market Tensions

In contrast to oil, Bitcoin recently dipped to $98,500 before quickly recovering back to $101,900. This resilience highlights Bitcoin as a preferred investment during geopolitical strife.

Previously, such conflicts would have significantly impacted Bitcoin prices negatively. However, the digital asset has shown stability above the $100,000 mark, buoyed by positive net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity.

As the US markets prepare to open today, focus remains on any updates from President Trump regarding the conflict with Iran. Optimism arises with the lack of reported missile attacks and statements from Israel against prolonged warfare.

Any resolution to this conflict could trigger a strong rally in cryptocurrencies, possibly pushing Bitcoin past the $110,000 threshold towards long-awaited targets of $150,000.