Overview

A top trader on Polymarket is making a bold bet of $15,000 on a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve expected next week. The trader could potentially earn $226,000 if the Fed goes through with this substantial cut.

Despite this wager, the market as a whole predicts only a 25 basis point reduction, with the CME’s FedWatch Tool indicating a 91% probability for this outcome.

Key Points:

• The trader, under the alias JustWakingUp, has an extensive history on the platform with nearly $400 million in trading volume and profits exceeding $2 million.
• As of now, the trader’s position has shown a 3% gain, highlighting the growing market anticipation that has elevated the chances of a larger cut to 10% following a disappointing jobs report.
• Analysts from BlackRock and Standard Chartered have suggested a possible 50 bps rate cut after recent economic insights.
• Additional reports indicated that there were 911,000 fewer jobs added over the past year than previously estimated, the largest annual downward revision recorded to date.
• Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming data releases: the U.S. Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, which could influence expectations regarding these rate cuts and potentially drive price increases in Bitcoin and stock markets.