Several influential figures in the cryptocurrency sector maintain optimism that Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by the end of the year. However, Galaxy Digital’s CEO, Mike Novogratz, holds a more cautious view.

Planets might have to align quite perfectly for Bitcoin to achieve that milestone by year-end, Novogratz remarked during a recent CNBC interview. He indicated, “The end of the year is only two and a half months away,” noting that substantial momentum would be required for such a rise.

“There would have to be a heck of a lot of crazy stuff to really get that kind of momentum.”

(Translation: Achieving that level will require extraordinary conditions.)

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $107,649, needing to increase about 133% within the next ten weeks, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Is $100,000 a Strong Support?

According to Novogratz, in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin should stay around the $100,000 mark, a significant psychological price point it first surpassed back in December 2024, following Donald Trump’s reelection as President.

He notes that the $100,000 price should act as support for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s movement
Bitcoin is down 3.44% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

After hitting a recent low of $102,000 due to market impacts from U.S.-China trade tariffs, Novogratz added, “On the upside, you don’t really accelerate until you take out $125,000,” alluding to Bitcoin’s recent peak of $125,100.

“So the most likely outlook is we’re rangy between 100 and 120 or 125, unless we take out the top side.”

He indicated that potential catalysts to propel Bitcoin past its all-time high could include Trump’s influence on the Federal Reserve or the passage of the CLARITY Act this year.

As for market dynamics, the majority of experts recognize that the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates will significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory, especially after recent rate cuts.

As of now, there’s a 96.7% chance of another Fed rate cut at the next meeting on October 29, according to CME’s Fed Watch Tool.

Is Bitcoin’s Year-End Price Crucial?

Some analysts remain hopeful for Bitcoin’s surge to $250,000 this year, while others dismiss this timeline as insignificant.

During a recent podcast, Tom Lee of BitMine and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reaffirmed their favorable outlook, predicting Bitcoin reaching between $200,000 and $250,000, a forecast they’ve sustained throughout most of the year.

However, Bitcoin analysts like PlanC have expressed skepticism towards the emphasis on Bitcoin reaching a specific price by year-end. He stated, “Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability.”

Additionally, Adam Back, a notable figure in the crypto realm, remarked, “Bitcoin price cycle ’10x bigger’ but will still decisively break above $100K.”