Ethereum (ETH) fell below $3,800 again, yet certain indicators suggest a potential price rebound could be forthcoming. A critical factor here is the decline in tokens held on cryptocurrency exchanges.

However, some analysts caution that the cryptocurrency might face an even harsher downturn shortly.

Transitioning to Self-Custody?

Prominent analyst on X, Ali Martinez, reported that 200,000 ETH have been taken out from crypto exchanges within just 48 hours. At current rates, this stash amounts to around $770 million.

This development illustrates that investors are increasingly choosing to take their assets off centralized platforms and place them into self-custody wallets, which lowers the immediate selling pressure.

Earlier this week, the total ETH on exchanges reached a nine-year low of approximately 15.8 million coins, and the latest figures are quite close to this mark.

ETH Exchange Reserves, Source: CryptoQuant

Martinez also made another note, stating that 230,000 ETH were moved by large holders (likely exchanges) last week. This transfer may include various transactions such as withdrawals, deposits, or internal transfers that differ from the earlier withdrawals.

Moreover, Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently appears bullish (at least for now). This technical analysis tool indicates a score just above 30, placing it near the oversold territory and possibly ready for a surge. Conversely, scores exceeding 70 suggest that the asset is overbought, which is typically bearish for the price.

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ETH RSI, Source: CoinGecko

Crucial Moment for ETH

At the time of publication, Ethereum is trading at about $3,800, reflecting a 5% decline for the day and an 8% dip over the past month. X user Ted pointed out the slide below $4,000 came after the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates in the US, and amidst US-China trade discussions, suggesting this indicates a “classic bear trap, or the cryptocurrency market may dive deeper.”

Kamran Asghar also contributed by envisioning a possible decline to $3,400-$3,500 before a renewed upswing.

Conversely, others like Max Crypto are more hopeful, predicting an “up-only” scenario where ETH might ascend to a new all-time high of $7,000. According to this analyst, the asset’s recent performance parallels pre-pump conditions seen in May, which led to substantial growth shortly after.

In the meantime, whales with a 100% success rate have recently opened long positions in ETH, raising speculations regarding their insights into the market.