The value of Bitcoin (BTC) is predicted to undergo periodic fluctuations, potentially leading to a drastic market reduction of up to 70% during future downturns, as stated by Vineet Budki, the CEO of Sigma Capital. Budki mentioned that this anticipated decline reflects a misunderstanding among traders about the asset’s nature. He elaborated on this point during the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, UAE:

“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000. The problem is that people don’t know its utility, and when people buy assets that they don’t know and understand, they sell them first; that is where the selling pressure comes from.”

Despite the predicted nadir, Budki is optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, asserting that it could attain a value of $1 million or more within the next decade, underpinned by increasing user adoption stemming from both price speculation and practical applications of BTC.

Some analysts, including Arthur Hayes from BitMEX, contest the sustained relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, emphasizing that macroeconomic conditions now play a larger role in influencing prices than historical trends. Meanwhile, Seamus Rocca of Xapo Bank argues that the four-year cycle is still relevant as many investors perceive BTC as a riskier asset despite its inherent store-of-value qualities.

A chart breaking down investor psychology patterns during different points of the Bitcoin market cycle.

Source: Root

Additionally, there’s an observation that financial institutions have begun to hold over 4 million BTC combined, which is nearly 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, indicating a maturing market.

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